PUBLISHING PARTNERS

THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC is producing economic, political, and social disruptions not seen in decades, and major industries, from finance to airlines, have already felt the impact. The latest casualty: the US auto industry, which announced Wednesday a total shutdown of all three Detroit carmaker manufacturing operations that will last at least through the end of the month.

The pandemic’s effect on automakers has already been massive. After the virus appeared in China, auto sales there fell 80 percent last month. Globally, the industry has canceled large events—the Geneva Motor Show this month, New York’s equivalent next month—for fear of spreading the virus. European carmakers began temporary factory closures last week amid health concerns for their employees, falling demand, and severe disruptions to manufacturing supply chains, which often include China. And now the US industry is shuttered as well.

Navigant Research principal analyst Sam Abuelsamid had anticipated the shutdown of the US industry in a Twitter post-Tuesday night. The decision to close is in line with industry protocols enacted after the 2008 bankruptcies, he said, which gives the companies more flexibility to manage production and inventories to deal with declines in demand. “No one will want to be sitting on excess inventory if this situation drags on,” he said.

Closing factories, whether temporary or indefinite, is just the start of the industry’s woes, says Peter Nagle, automotive industry analyst for IHS Markit. The falling stock market will hurt consumer confidence, which will be further hurt by lost paychecks and declining home prices, he predicts. He expects to see some sort of stimulus program come from Washington, the shape of which is still under debate, “but anything that’s going to be proposed is likely going to be too small to offset the US trajectory this year,” he adds. “The ground is shifting beneath our feet.”

The COVID-19 outbreak has exposed several challenges for the automotive sector. Governments globally are preparing for a broader spread of the virus. South Korea, Italy and Japan are the most affected among the major industrialized economies. Consequently, 80 percent of automotive and related companies report that Coronavirus will have a direct impact on their 2020 revenues. 78 percent of companies do not have enough staff to run a full production line.

However, more than 80 percent of the world’s auto supply chain is connected to China. (2) In January 2020 China’s car sales plunged by 18 percent.(3) The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) considers that the first two-month sales could decline by 40 percent or more compared to the same period in 2019. Production shortfalls resulting from supply chain disruptions in China will impact global automakers.

Hubei is one of the four major automobile production bases in China and has more than 100 automotive suppliers. Automotive plants in Hubei remained closed until March 11 and have now slowly started reopening. China is now over two months into the COVID-19 outbreak and vehicle sales have dropped to nearly zero. However, February, due to the Chinese New Year, has never been a strong month. March numbers will be much more representative of the real impact of the Coronavirus.

Social distancing measures and fear of infection will likely slow down traffic in showrooms, which could force a shift to online sales. General Motors has been highlighting its little-known online sales tool “Shop Click Drive,” but most other automakers aren’t as well-positioned to pivot away from dealerships. Tesla has sold cars online from the beginning, but the forced closure of its California factory means the automaker will likely have to rely on an existing inventory of lightly used cars.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a Car?

The fear of the coronavirus should not stop you from buying a car – as long as you’re looking for a vehicle that meets your needs and that you can afford. However, you don’t want to risk the health of you, your family or others in the community to purchase a vehicle. To avoid spreading the disease, it’s critical you follow the advice of medical authorities about person-to-person interactions, hand washing, social distancing and other methods of preventing disease spread. You can sell your car Dubai to Expat car buyers as this is a line service which helps you well in selling your car easily.

Of course, as with a car purchase in normal times, you want to be smart about how you buy a car and get your financing.

The question has become “can you buy a car?” As states and cities adopt stricter policies to prevent the spread of the virus, dealerships in many cities, counties, and states are having to close their doors or limit their hours due to shelter-in-place or stay-at-home orders. Between March 20 and 22, the list of jurisdictions with orders limiting the movement of people grew by the hour. The list of jurisdictions with shelter-in-place and stay-at-home orders continues to grow by the hour.